Deutsche Bank: Model Y Deliveries Begin Q1 2020

A new research note from Deutsche Bank estimates that Tesla will start deliveries of their Model Y crossover in the first quarter of 2020:

If Tesla could begin Model Y deliveries in the first-quarter of 2020, that would be a full season ahead of CEO Elon Musk’s promised schedule. Early production and deliveries would be a symbolic win for the company, which has often failed to meet self-imposed delivery deadlines.

CNBC

FIrst quarter of 2020 would mean that the first deliveries will begin in just a few months. Not all that surprising given all the shots we’ve seen of Model Y driving around in the wild.

Tesla first unveiled the Model Y in Q1 2019, so time from unveil to delivery would be just about a year (or maybe less).

We’re also ahead of schedule on Model Y preparations in Fremont, and we’ve moved the launch timeline from full 2020 to summer 2020. There may be some room for improvement there, but we’re confident about summer 2020. I’ve actually recently driven the Model Y release candidate and think […] it will outsell Model S, Model X and Model 3 combined.

Elon Musk, Q3 2019 Earnings Call

Last official word was that we were looking at a Q2 launch. If Tesla delivers in Q1, it would be yet another example of a new Tesla way: providing conservative timelines, and then beating them.

On Tuesday, analysts at Deutsche Bank cited reports from Tesla suppliers in Taiwan who told a newspaper there they experienced “accelerating orders” for parts that would go into the Model Y, as well as Tesla’s forthcoming commercial truck, the Semi.

CNBC

That’s where today’s scoop is coming from –– parts suppliers. Apparently Tesla has accelerated the timeline for mass production of Model Y and Tesla Semi parts, implying that the production schedule has been accelerated as well.

Reports from suppliers of Model Y parts in Taiwan are claiming that Tesla is requesting that their orders be delivered much earlier than expected… The Taiwanese suppliers are now indicating that the Tesla is accelerating orders to enter mass production a full six months ahead of the original schedule. This would mean that the Model Y could be available to the public in the first quarter of next year. The suppliers additionally claimed that Tesla Semi part orders are being accelerated as well, with the truck set to be released in limited quantity sometime next year.”

CNBC

Wow. First deliveries of Model Y and Semi in 2020. These are both enormously significant products. And they will both launch with feature complete autonomy.

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4 thoughts on “Deutsche Bank: Model Y Deliveries Begin Q1 2020

  1. I could see Tesla doing this with the Cybertruck since it is so simple to produce. Maybe production would start Q4 2020?

    1. Cybertruck is not exactly simple to produce… While it should avoid some complex steps of traditional body construction, it comes with its own complexities. Elon actually admitted that they have to come up with entirely new production methods… So this is almost certain to delay rather than accelerate production.

      Also note that while Model Y was unveiled as a pretty much finished product, the Cybertruck prototype for the unveiling is only the first take, and it was built literally weeks before the event. It’s far from the real product; more like a fancy test mule. (Using different construction than the final product.)

      It doesn’t help that this is not only a new platform, but also an entirely new product category for Tesla, *and* an entirely new approach to vehicle construction for anyone — which means it will need a lot more development and testing effort.

      I’ll be frankly surprised if they can make the 2021 timeline on this one…

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