A new research note from Deutsche Bank estimates that Tesla will start deliveries of their Model Y crossover in the first quarter of 2020:
If Tesla could begin Model Y deliveries in the first-quarter of 2020, that would be a full season ahead of CEO Elon Musk’s promised schedule. Early production and deliveries would be a symbolic win for the company, which has often failed to meet self-imposed delivery deadlines.CNBC
FIrst quarter of 2020 would mean that the first deliveries will begin in just a few months. Not all that surprising given all the shots we’ve seen of Model Y driving around in the wild.
Tesla first unveiled the Model Y in Q1 2019, so time from unveil to delivery would be just about a year (or maybe less).
We’re also ahead of schedule on Model Y preparations in Fremont, and we’ve moved the launch timeline from full 2020 to summer 2020. There may be some room for improvement there, but we’re confident about summer 2020. I’ve actually recently driven the Model Y release candidate and think […] it will outsell Model S, Model X and Model 3 combined.Elon Musk, Q3 2019 Earnings Call
Last official word was that we were looking at a Q2 launch. If Tesla delivers in Q1, it would be yet another example of a new Tesla way: providing conservative timelines, and then beating them.
On Tuesday, analysts at Deutsche Bank cited reports from Tesla suppliers in Taiwan who told a newspaper there they experienced “accelerating orders” for parts that would go into the Model Y, as well as Tesla’s forthcoming commercial truck, the Semi.CNBC
That’s where today’s scoop is coming from –– parts suppliers. Apparently Tesla has accelerated the timeline for mass production of Model Y and Tesla Semi parts, implying that the production schedule has been accelerated as well.
Reports from suppliers of Model Y parts in Taiwan are claiming that Tesla is requesting that their orders be delivered much earlier than expected… The Taiwanese suppliers are now indicating that the Tesla is accelerating orders to enter mass production a full six months ahead of the original schedule. This would mean that the Model Y could be available to the public in the first quarter of next year. The suppliers additionally claimed that Tesla Semi part orders are being accelerated as well, with the truck set to be released in limited quantity sometime next year.”CNBC
Wow. First deliveries of Model Y and Semi in 2020. These are both enormously significant products. And they will both launch with feature complete autonomy.