Well, this is truly something. Just look at that analysis –– a work of true predictive genius. Bravo Jonas!
That’s right: Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who just 6 months ago said Tesla shares could be worth $10 apiece in a worst-case scenario, has raised his bull case to $500:
Morgan Stanley increased its “bull case” for Tesla to $500 a share on Thursday, in the firm’s calculation of a best case scenario for the company’s value if Cybertruck is successful and the new factory in China exceeds expectations.CNBC
That would be a 50% upside over today’s close.
“In an optimistic scenario,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said he sees Tesla selling 100,000 Cybertrucks by the end of 2024, at an average price of $50,000. Additionally, Jonas believes Tesla’s Gigafactory in China could perform better than anticipated and reach a production rate of 450,000 units per year by 2024/2025.CNBC
This is a hilariously conservative estimate. We know from Elon’s tweets that the average Cybertruck mix is priced at around $60,000. And with over 250,000 reservations, it seems very likely that Tesla will be able to hit the 100k mark for deliveries well before 2024.
“To be clear, we are not bullish on Tesla longer term, especially as, over time, we believe Tesla could be perceived by the market more and more like a traditional auto OEM [original equipment manufacturer]; we are prepared for a potential surge in sentiment through 1H20 but question the sustainability,” Jonas said.CNBC
More bone-headed analysis. Tesla is similar to legacy auto OEMs in one way: Both sell cars. That’s about where the similarities end.
In essence, Morgan Stanley could see Tesla’s stock going in any direction. The firm has a $10 “bear case” on Tesla, as Jonas earlier this year cited the difficulty of valuing Elon Musk’s company.CNBC
So, could be $500 but could also be $10? Thanks as always for the great analysis Jonas.
Adam Jonas says $TSLA could be worth $10 or $500. He’s also forecasting that tomorrow’s weather could be very hot or very cold. Dress accordingly.Tweet