Ford will unveil the Mustang Mach-E tonight, and I’m incredibly excited to see what they have to tell us. You can watch live on YouTube at 6 PM California time, 9 PM Eastern Time, 02:00 UTC:

The Leaked Specs

Someone found a Mach-E website which looks like it wasn’t supposed to be released yet. The specs are unconfirmed, but what the website shows is specs for the Mustang Mach-E that match the Model Y. If Ford can really deliver, this is huge news. This would mean that Ford has battery and drivetrain technology that beats Volkswagen, the Porsche Taycan, Jaguar… pretty much everyone except Tesla.

Huge, if true

I’m very excited to watch this event to try and figure out what is going on here. If it sounds like Ford can really deliver this vehicle, the EV revolution is in full swing.

Honestly, my first thought when I saw the specs were that they were too good to be true. I thought: Did they just copy target specs from the Model Y page, or can they actually achieve this?

If the Ford team can deliver these specs at $44k – $60k price point, this is an absolutely enormous achievement and the Ford team deserves huge kudos for making this push into the EV space.

What an entrance!

Ford has no electric vehicles on the market today. If they can somehow beat Volkswagen on specs and price with their first EV, after Volkswagen made multiple EV attempts and invested tens of billions of dollars… that is an incredibly significant achievement. Who is designing and manufacturing the drivetrain and battery? Is it a Ford custom design? Volkswagen’s MEB Platform? Are they getting it from someone else? This is one of my top questions.

Would you buy one?

No Supercharging is a no go for me.

No Autopilot is a no go for me.

And I don’t really want to be the one to pay and find out if Ford’s first EV is a piece of shit or not.

The EV Revolution Begins

This is the start of the EV revolution –– where all major makes and models have an electric option available, and it’s the best option. Eventually, gas powered models will phase out completely as this technology matures. With the harmful effects of air pollution and greenhouse gasses, this could not happen fast enough.

A rising tide lifts all boats. When every car maker in the world is making EVs, that means larger orders for EV parts, batteries and drivetrains. This means that prices fall across for all electric vehicles on the market, making EVs even more competitive compared to gas cars. Today, EVs already have a lower total cost of ownership for those who have access to financing. After the EV revolution is over, electric vehicles will have a lower sticker price than gas cars.

More EV competition makes all EVs more affordable through economies of scale. On top of that, more EVs means more charging, servicing, and other infrastructure that’s needed to help transition the world to sustainable transport.

Naturally, people will want to compare and contrast the various features and specs of EVs from Tesla, Volkswagen, GM, Ford and others. But the real competition is polluting, gas-powered cars. The status quo is the Goliath that all EVs will face together as a tiny collective David.

For electric vehicles to succeed, they must revolutionize the way the global economy is run –– and the only way to do that is together.

The Tesla Factor

The timing of this unveil is pretty interesting, with Tesla unveiling their electric Cybertruck, which will be going after Ford’s flagship F-150. If Ford was not unveiling their first electric vehicle today, they would seem horribly behind as California upstart Tesla circles in to eat their lunch. This is partly what makes me skeptical of the whole thing: Is this a real vehicle, or just meant as a counter offensive?

Tesla is launching reservations for their Cybertruck, which will hit F-150 sales at least a little bit on the high end, most profitable segment of the market… maybe Ford is hoping that opening reservations for the Mustang Mach-E will take a toll on the Model Y or even the Model 3?

Ford has also been talking about an electric F-150, suggesting that they’re taking this competitive threat very seriously.

Crazy speculation: What if it’s Tesla

This seems completely crazy, and I think there’s less than a 5% chance this actually happens… but on the other hand it’s one of the most plausible explanations I can think of for how Ford would be able to deliver on these specs.

What if they just got drivetrain and battery components from Tesla? Tesla has said that they would be willing to license their technology to other auto makers.

This would explain how Ford is confident they will be able to meet these specs shortly after the release of the Model Y, even though it’s their first production mass-market electric vehicle.

Even if the vehicle used non-Tesla battery and drivetrain technology, imagine if the Mustang Mach-E had access to Tesla’s supercharger network or Autopilot technology? This would do a lot to eliminate the biggest reasons why this car can’t compete with the Model Y. It would be huge news.

Why would Tesla want to help their competitors?

Tesla’s mission is to accelerate the transition to sustainable transport. They’re already selling every vehicle they can make: If they can help others with their production, why not?

Tesla is no longer able to take advantage of the $7,500 Federal Income Tax Credit for EV purchasers in the United States, having hit the per-brand limit. But other brands besides GM and Tesla are still able to take advantage of the full $7,500 tax credit. If Tesla can help license the technology to help them sell more EVs, they can harness these incentives through other brands and generate profit with a lot less work than it takes to build and sell a Tesla vehicle. Plus, they can permanently turn there competitors customers into EV buyers by giving them a high quality experience.

Tesla is already selling every car they can make. A strategy to put more vehicles on the road can only help Tesla’s mission long-term.

This is probably too crazy to be true, but boy would it be exciting. It wouldn’t be the first time Tesla has licensed technology to other car makers.

Let’s see

Anyway, these are just my random initial thoughts. I haven’t really looked into this that much to be honest. but I’m excited to watch the event this evening and figure out what’s going on.

Tune in for live coverage here, and on Mastodon.